Why Moscow is in a strong position (Bruno Guigue)
Published on 21.11.2022
Bruno Guigue tells us : Contrary to what blinded media reports, the balance of power in Ukraine remains largely favorable to Russia:
• Western sanctions are a complete failure. The Russian economy is holding up, the ruble is stronger than ever, and hydrocarbon exports have never brought so much to Russia. Those who wanted to “bring Russia to its knees” are at their expense.
• Russia’s attempt at international isolation is a fiasco. The demographic heavyweights of the South (China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Vietnam, etc.) refuse to participate in the anti-Russian crusade and cooperate more than ever with Moscow politically and economic.
• The ratio of military losses on the ground is 1 to 5 to the detriment of Ukrainian forces. Russia having no interest in rushing the movement, it knew how to operate the necessary tactical retreats, even if it meant letting NATO claim victory. But this war of attrition benefits the Russian forces which have already started a new offensive in the Donbass.
• Sometimes misunderstood, Moscow’s restraint in the conduct of operations guarantees the majority support of the Russian people: not only are Russian military losses limited, but civilian losses in Ukraine as in Russia are relatively low. Main opposition party, the Russian Communist Party supports the special military operation.
• The Russian forces already control 20% of the ex-Ukrainian territory and they lack about 6-7% to conquer to complete the achievement of the main objective: the liberation of the four administrative divisions with a Russian-speaking majority. Ukrainian forces having entrenched themselves in this area since 2014, this will undoubtedly be the most difficult part of the special military operation.
• The US is beginning to understand that kyiv’s hardline is counterproductive for three reasons:
1. The Ukrainians will never take back Donbass and Crimea.
2. Their army is exhausted in offensives that cost human lives.
3. Financing this proxy war is starting to get expensive, especially in an environment that will turn into a global economic recession.
If the conflict ends in a Ukrainian rout, NATO and the USA will be in the hot seat.
Wait and see.
Source : Bruno Guigue