No need to exaggerate numbers of UFO reports

No need to exaggerate numbers of UFO reports


Yes, Virginia, the number of UFO reports is higher during
the pandemic.

As someone who has been studying UFO report data for many
years, I have seen fluctuations in yearly and monthly trends, and changes in the
characteristics of the objects reported over time. I have made this data
available for anyone to examine since the late 1980s, and I have worked with
investigators, researchers and organizations to publish an annual Canadian UFO
Survey that tabulates and breaks down the data for easy consumption.

Rarely, however, have I been asked by media or
journalists about my research. Pop culture dictates that media darlings attract
more interest than anyone presenting facts and doing critical analyses.

But recently, I was asked about news stories that either
suggest UFO reports have increased during the pandemic or that such an increase
is “greatly exaggerated.” Which is right?

Since 1989, details about UFO reports in Canada have been
solicited from all known and active 
investigators and researchers for analyses and comparison
with other compilations. Before that time, individual researchers usually
maintained their own files with little or no communication to others. Even
today, it is known that some representatives of major UFO organizations often
do not regularly share or share case data, and some parent organizations do not
do much analyses with the data they do receive, although this is changing.

Ufology Research of Manitoba (now Ufology Research)
conducts a systematic collection of raw UFO report data in Canada and prepares
yearly reports for general circulation. We believe the dissemination of such
data could be of great advantage to researchers in the hope of better
understanding the UFO phenomenon.

Statistical studies of UFO data are not without their
limitations and problems. Allan Hendry, formerly of the Center for UFO Studies,
in his landmark book
The UFO Handbook,
pointed out flaws in such studies and asked: “… do UFO statistics represent a
valid pursuit for more knowledge about this elusive phenomenon, or do they
merely reflect frustration that none of the individual reports are capable of
standing on their own two feet?” (1979, p. 269)

Hendry asked six questions of statistical ufology:

1) Does the report collection
reflect truly random sampling?

2) Have the individual cases
been adequately validated?

3) Are apples and oranges being
compared? Are NLs necessarily the same kind of UFO as DDs?

4) Are differing details among
cases obscured through simplification for the purpose of comparisons?

5) Does the study imply the
question: “Surely this mass of data proves UFOs exist?”

6) Do the correlations really
show causality?

The Canadian UFO
Survey
was undertaken with these and other critical comments in mind.

For the annual Canadian
UFO Survey
, UFO reports were obtained from contributing investigators’
files, press clippings and the files of the National Research Council of Canada
(NRC). The NRC routinely received UFO reports from private citizens and from
RCMP, civic police and military personnel. Included among the NRC reports are
many observations of meteors and fireballs, and these had been added into the
UFO report database since 1989. Many of the reports were obtained via email and
online newsgroups, and when social media became widely used, reports have also
been received via Facebook, Youtube and Twitter. Finally, some declassified
documents of the Department of National Defence contain reports of unusual
objects in Canadian airspace, and these also have been included in the
database.

The number of UFO sightings officially reported each year
in Canada throughout the past 25 
years was initially comparatively small. In 1989, 141 UFO
reports were obtained for analysis and in 1990, 194 reports were recorded. This
yearly number has risen over the years to around 1,000 reports each year. As of
2019, the Canadian UFO Survey has run 30 years, 12 years longer than Blue Book
officially existed, and has more than 21,000 UFO reports as data, several
thousand more UFO reports than Blue Book itself.

As noted, one trend that I have been reporting on for a few
years is that the number of UFO reports in Canada has risen steadily during the
past 30 years, but may have plateaued in about 2013, remaining around 1,100
reports per year. The past few years has seen a definite drop in cases, and
2019 actually recorded only 849 reports.

[NB: As can be seen by the data and analyses presented in the annual Canadian UFO Survey, most UFO reports either have possible/probable explanations or have insufficient information for evaluation. Very few are left unexplained, and even these don’t mean that aliens are visiting Earth.]

A graph of more than 30 years of data shows the general
increase over time, as well as fluctuations and peaks in report numbers.

 

One aspect of the Canadian UFO Survey is that data are tabulated
and the statistics run in the early part of the following year. Usually,
results of the annual study are posted in about March of the following year. In
2020, for the 2019 survey, the pandemic delayed the production until the
summer. The analyses of the 2019 data showed a decrease in the number of UFO
reports over 2018, the previous year.

However, by summer 2020, there were stories in media that
UFO cases
had
increased during the pandemic
, while
others said they had not done
so. I decided to look at the first half of
2020 for case numbers to supplement the 2019 results. I was surprised to find
that the claims of an increase appeared true.

A comparison of MUFON report data for Canada during the
first half of 2020 with that of the same period in 2019 showed a distinct
increase.

              Jan    Feb    
Mar    Apr    May   
Jun      Total

2019     16     
28       21       10     
25       25       125

2020     23     
24       35       46     
43       25       196

There were 71 additional cases in Canada reported to
MUFON between January and June of 2020 than in 2019, or an increase of about 57
per cent.

Yet in
an article in Astronomy magazine

it was argued that the increase in UFO reports during the pandemic is “greatly exaggerated.”

When overall MUFON UFO data was examined, it was found
that:

There were about 3,800 cases
reported between January and late September of this year, which is a roughly 20
percent increase compared to 2019.

This was for all UFO reports, both national and
international, and for all reports submitted during that time, not just
occurring during that specific period.

Steve Hudgeons, MUFON
international director of investigations, was quoted in media:

“It’s not really that alarming.
It fluctuates a lot,” says Hudgeons, who admits to fielding many questions
about the subject this year. “I wouldn’t say there’s a large increase at all.”

Further,

But they say that level of annual
variation is normal for their dataset. And, in fact, reported cases have mostly
been declining in recent years.

There’s no question that annual UFO report numbers go up
and down from year to year. However, even 20 per cent could be significant. And
more than 50 per cent of an increase in the case of Canada appears significant.
Why would Canada be different?

The writer for Astronomy
magazine also looked at UFO reports as noted in the database of the
National UFO Reporting Center (NUFORC), which
is another source of data for the Canadian UFO Survey.

He wrote:

“…most of the news stories
written about the rise in sightings have taken their numbers from another
online reporting site called the National UFO Reporting Center. Like MUFON,
they’ve been collecting accounts of UFO sightings for nearly half a century,
largely through a phone hotline and, in recent decades, an online form.

“Back in April, they [NUFORC]
received more than twice as many reports compared to the same month the prior
year. But those numbers happened at the height of lockdowns, at the same time a
sensational news story was published in
The
New York Times
that revealed previously classified footage of UFOs captured
by American fighter pilots. But soon after, their reported sightings returned
back to 2019 levels-which were significantly less than they were just 5 to 10
years ago.”

The implication here is that the NYT story precipitated the rise in UFO reports in NUFORC’s
database. The problem is that this is very selective.

Let’s look at the NUFORC data for the first six months of
2020 versus 2019:

              Jan    Feb    
Mar    Apr    May   
Jun      Total

2019     349  
219    328     389    
543     477     2305

2020     604  
604    808    1036   
556     359     3967

As noted in the Astronomy
article, April reports in 2020 for NUFORC were very high compared with 2019, in
fact not just “more than twice as many” but closer to three times as many. And
yes, that was the month that a public relations firm helped advance the US Navy
media story about the USS Nimitz UFO videos.

But as can be seen in the full data, the increase in UFO
reports in 2020 began in January, with almost twice as many that month, and
nearly three times as many in February, all before the media blitz in April.

If you look at NUFORC data in January to June 2020
compared with the same time period in 2019, there is an increase of about 72
per cent.

Now, have UFO report numbers fallen back to “normal”
levels since then? Yes. But was there an increase in UFO report numbers during
the pandemic? Maybe.

Lockdowns in Canada did not occur until March 2020.
During than month and April 2020, MUFON UFO report numbers in Canada increased
from 35 during the same period in 2019 to 89 in 2020.

But the NUFORC data showed large increases in UFO reports
beginning in January, long before the reality of the pandemic was really felt
in the USA. So it would not seem that the increase during the first quarter of
2020 had anything to do with the pandemic.

What about now? When
asked by Canadian media about the increase in UFO reports in Canada
:

Rutkowski hopes the reason
there’s a spike in UFO sightings during the pandemic is because Canadians are
getting outside more, working from their backyards and appreciating nature.

“It’s a beautiful sky out there
and there’s lots of opportunities to see some things,” he said.

Note that my explanation has nothing to do with aliens or
extraterrestrial spacecraft, although the
Astronomy
article mocked UFO sightings in the context of wishful UFO fans reporting “alien
encounters.”

The facts are that UFO report numbers have increased
during the time of the COVID-19 pandemic. Whether there is a causal
relationship between the pandemic and objects observed in the sky remains to be
seen. (Pun intended)

Bourbon is a useful tool for ufology


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